Down 67%, Then Up 450%: What I Learned Holding Through the Fear

On 31 March, my investment portfolio was down 67%.

Let that sink in for a moment, because it deserves to.

Not 6.7%. Not a bad quarter. Sixty-seven percent. Two thirds of the value I had going in, gone – at least on paper, at least for now. The kind of number that, if you told most people, they would assume the story ended badly.

My wife knew. She's not a natural investor and doesn't follow markets closely, which means she experienced that number the way most reasonable people would: with fear. We didn't discuss it at length. There wasn't much to say that would have been useful. I was holding positions I believed in, in companies I thought had genuine upside, in options with expiry dates at least a year away. To those not acquainted with options, that meant: I have time.

But 67% is a heavy number to carry quietly.

All my positions were LEAP options – long-dated calls with expiry dates well into the future. This matters because it meant the clock wasn't running fast. I wasn't facing a situation where I had to be right by Tuesday. I had runway.

More importantly, I believed in the underlying companies. These weren't speculative bets on something I didn't understand. They were positions in businesses I had followed, thought about, and concluded had real upside potential. Some had small gains. Some were in loss. But none of them had broken the thesis that made me buy them in the first place.

So I held. Not with white knuckles. Quietly confident – which sounds like a more composed version of the experience than it actually was. But genuinely: I did not seriously consider cutting them.

The Iran war made everything worse before it got better. Markets fell, oil spiked, the news cycle produced a new crisis every three days. The S&P 500 was at its war-period low around the same time my portfolio was at -67%. Looking back, that turns out to have been roughly the bottom. Trust me, it didn't feel like the bottom at the time.

Back in December, I took a long call position in AMD. I wasn't trying to make one concentrated bet – if I'd had more capital available, I would have spread it across several other stocks I had conviction in too. AMD was one of several companies I thought had meaningful upside, and the price seemed good too. It happened to be the one I had a position in when the rally came.

That position is now up 450%.

I want to be precise about what that means and what it doesn't. It means I was right about AMD having upside potential. It also means I was fortunate about the timing – a position taken in December, with a rally that concentrated in April and May, during an AI earnings season that validated the semiconductor thesis with the kind of hard numbers that end debate. Conviction got me in. The timing had luck in it. I'm not going to claim otherwise.

What that one position did to the portfolio is remarkable in its mathematics. A single long call, running hard, pulled the entire book from -67% to above +10% in five weeks. This is both an advertisement for options as an instrument and a reminder of why they're not for the faint-hearted: leverage cuts both ways, and what can pull you from -67% to +10% can also do the reverse.

Earlier, I had another position that ran to +150%. I didn't set a stop loss. I told myself I'd “let the profit run”. It ran for a bit more and then retreated to -24% where it currently sits.

That experience is the reason I handled the AMD position differently.

When AMD ran past 100%, I didn't take profit. I moved the stop loss into positive territory instead – set it at a level where, if the position reversed, I would still lock in a meaningful gain rather than riding it all the way back down. This is the discipline that the previous mistake taught me: let the profit run, but put a floor under it.

Setting a stop loss in the profit zone sounds simple. In practice, it requires resisting two competing instincts simultaneously. The first is the urge to take profit early – to lock in the win before it disappears, which is emotionally satisfying but mathematically suboptimal if the position still has room to run. The second is the urge to hold without any floor at all – to not "limit the upside" – which is also emotionally satisfying until it isn't.

Getting the stop loss level right is genuinely hard. Too tight and you get stopped out on normal intraday volatility and miss the continuation. Too loose and you give up gains you should have protected. It requires thinking about volatility, conviction, and time horizon simultaneously, and I won't pretend I've fully solved it. It's continuous learning. Sometimes I read it right, sometimes I don’t.

But compared to where I was with that previous position, the AMD discipline represents progress. I think.

Now, I'm not saying I've found a system. I'm not saying long calls in semiconductor stocks are the answer. I'm not saying 450% gains are repeatable or expected or something you should try to replicate.

What I am saying is this: at -67%, the rational case for holding was clear to me, even if it wasn't to anyone watching from the outside. The underlying companies were good. The time horizon was long enough. The thesis hadn't broken. So I held.

And one position, in a company I genuinely believed in, at a time I couldn't have precisely predicted, did the rest.

That's not a system. It's a lesson in the ratio of skill to fortune – and in the value of knowing which part of an outcome belongs to which.

The stop loss is in the profit zone now. I'm watching, but not watching too hard.

Have you ever held through a significant paper loss with quiet confidence, and how did that story end?

👉 Hit reply and share your thoughts – I’d love to hear what’s resonating with you.

☕ If these Sunday reflections are worth something to you, consider buying L-Plate Retiree a coffee on Ko-fi.

Picking Your Investment Partner – Researching Providers

Alright, L-Plate Retirees! We've journeyed through the Foundations of Investing, assessed our Personal Finances, grappled with Risk and Return, explored various Investment Vehicles, and even built and managed our Portfolios. Now, it's time to get practical: how do you actually start investing? The very first step is choosing your investment partner – your Investment Provider.

Think of it like choosing a bank, but for your investments. Not all providers are created equal, and the right one for you depends on your needs. As we discussed before, understanding your investment style (passive vs. active) will heavily influence this choice.

Here are the main types of investment providers you'll encounter:

• Traditional Brokerages: Offer comprehensive services, personalized advice, and research, but often come with higher fees. Great if you want a lot of hand-holding.

• Online Discount Brokers: Provide low-cost trading platforms and basic tools for self-directed investors. Perfect if you're comfortable making your own decisions.

• Robo-Advisors: Use algorithms to manage your portfolio automatically at low costs. Ideal for hands-off investors who appreciate the systematic approach.

When you're shopping around, keep these selection criteria in mind:

• Fees and Commissions: These can eat into your returns, so compare trading costs, account maintenance fees, and expense ratios of funds. Remember our discussion on Investment Costs.

• Investment Options: Do they offer the Investment Vehicles you're interested in, like ETFs, mutual funds, or individual stocks?

• Research Tools & Customer Service: Good resources and support can be invaluable, especially when you're just starting out.

• Platform Usability: Is their website or app easy to navigate? A clunky platform can be frustrating.

Crucially, always check for regulatory compliance. In many countries, providers must be licensed and regulated. For example, in the US, look for SEC registration and FINRA membership, and ensure your investments are protected by schemes like SIPC insurance. This is about protecting your hard-earned money, a core tenet of Risk Management.

L-Plate Takeaways:

• Choose Wisely: Your investment provider is your partner; pick one that aligns with your investment style and needs.

• Compare Fees: High fees erode returns. Look for low-cost options, especially for passive strategies.

• Check for Protection: Ensure your provider is regulated and your investments are protected by relevant insurance schemes.

• Ease of Use Matters: A user-friendly platform makes investing less daunting.

• Match Your Style: If you're hands-off, a robo-advisor might be perfect. If you're self-directed, a discount broker could be your go-to.