Why Every "Yeah, But" About This Market Is Actually Bullish

Powell looks through the oil shock. Bonds rally. Chips get hammered anyway.

The quick scan: Monday produced a split session that illustrates exactly why "the market" is rarely one thing. The Dow edged fractionally higher while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ both fell, as Fed Chair Powell's signal that the central bank intends to look through the energy price shock sent Treasury yields sharply lower – which helped financials and defensives but couldn't offset a brutal selloff in semiconductors.

S&P 500: –0.39% to 6,343.72 – a sixth consecutive losing session, now down more than 9% from its January peak and approaching correction territory
Dow Jones: +0.11% to 45,216.14 – the lone index in the green, supported by defensive rotations into utilities, financials and consumer staples as yields fell
NASDAQ: –0.73% to 20,794.64 – semiconductors led the decline after Alphabet research suggested compute-efficient AI models may require less chip power; Micron fell 9.7%, Lam Research 5.4%.

What's driving it: Powell's remarks were the day's central event. Speaking Monday, he signalled the Fed would look through the current energy price shock rather than respond to it directly – a broadly dovish signal that sent the 10-year Treasury yield falling nearly 10 basis points to 4.34%. That's the good news. The bad news arrived in the semiconductor sector, where Alphabet's research into compute-efficient AI models rattled chip stocks by raising questions about future demand for high-end processors. Micron, already under pressure, fell nearly 10%. Trump meanwhile reported "serious discussions" with Iran, though markets treated the comment with familiar scepticism given the pattern of the past week.

Bottom line: Monday's split – Dow up, NASDAQ down, yields falling – is the market processing two things simultaneously: relief that the Fed isn't panicking about inflation, and concern that the AI investment thesis underpinning tech valuations may be more fragile than assumed. For L-Plate Retirees, it's a useful reminder that "the market" contains many markets, and that diversification across sectors and asset classes is doing real work in sessions like this one.

The Investing Argument You Probably Weren't Expecting This Week

The scoop: Let's try something different this week.

Five straight weeks of losses. Corrections. Brent at war highs. The VIX in extreme fear. All of that is real. But writing in the Business Times this morning, Ken Fisher – founder and co-CIO of Fisher Investments – makes a counterintuitive case: every single one of those fears is bullish fuel. Bull markets famously climb a wall of worry. Right now, that wall is very tall indeed.

The "yeah, but" architecture.

Fisher structures his argument around five objections he keeps hearing – the familiar chorus of "yeah, but what about the Strait of Hormuz?", "yeah, but Trump's tariffs aren't done", "yeah, but the bull market is too old." Each one, he argues, is another brick in the wall of worry.

Yeah, but the Iran war changes everything.

Fisher's response is direct: no. Wars are humanly horrid, he says – full stop. But stocks are cold-hearted, and their response to regional conflicts follows a reliable three-step pattern. Volatility and rising oil prices arrive pre-conflict, as uncertainty builds. Then, when fighting begins, markets price in worst-case scenarios. Then comes step three: relief. Markets begin to recognise the conflict's limited economic footprint – and they typically start rising well before the fighting stops, because markets price the future roughly 30 days to three months ahead.

There's also a political element Fisher raises. If the Iran conflict drags on, Trump has a strong incentive to seek a resolution – November's midterm elections are looming, and a prolonged war is not a re-election asset.

Yeah, but the Strait of Hormuz is blocked.

This is the most specific fear, and Fisher dissects it carefully. About 20% of global oil flows through the Strait. But, he notes, roughly a third of that traffic is inbound for processing – not outbound supply. Those flows can be redirected. Pipeline workarounds exist through the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Any easing of Russian oil supply constraints would also help.

And even if oil stays elevated? Fisher is sceptical that high oil prices doom growth. Crude traded above $75 a barrel for most of 2023, and global stocks rose 22%. In the early 2010s, economies expanded for years with oil near $100. Adjusted for today's inflation, he argues, $100 oil now is closer to $76 in early-2010s terms.

Yeah, but Trump's tariffs will wreck everything.

Did they in 2025? World stocks rose 14% last year. The Straits Times Index roughly doubled that. Global trade grew, aided by exemptions, new deals, transshipment and other workarounds. Fisher had forecast this, and the outcome matched his forecast.

His point is not that tariffs are harmless. It's that markets move most on surprises – and tariffs have long since lost their surprise value. The shock is spent. Expect more threats and chatter, he says, but expect markets to digest them quickly.

Yeah, but rising oil and inflation mean MAS tightening is coming.

Fisher's view is that the assumed linkage between a stronger Singapore dollar and weaker STI performance is historically weak. The reason: production is global. Goods are rarely sourced, manufactured and sold within a single country, which dilutes the impact of currency moves. Global firms also routinely hedge against currency swings. A tighter MAS, he argues, is not the STI killer that investors fear.

Yeah, but surely the bull market is too old.

This is the objection Fisher seems to enjoy most. Bull markets, he argues, don't die of old age. They end when fundamentals deteriorate, when sentiment runs hot enough that everyone is already positioned for good news, or when a genuine shock arrives that the market hasn't priced.

He reaches for history: over the past century, the median bull market has lasted about 60 months. This one is 41 months old – approaching its fourth year. Only one bull market in the past hundred years ended shortly after its third year (1962 to 1966). This one isn't even old.

The wall of worry.

The connective thread across all five arguments is the concept of the "wall of worry." Bull markets don't need clear skies. They need scepticism – enough of it that reality has room to beat expectations. The existence of widely-shared fears means the bad news is already being priced in. When reality turns out less bad than feared – as it usually does – that gap between expectation and outcome drives prices higher.

Fisher's closing line is worth quoting directly: "It's time to worry when spirits run so high that the 'yeah, buts' have finally butted out."

We are not there yet.

The honest caveat.

Fisher is not a neutral voice. He is a professional bull – the founder of a global investment firm whose clients are, almost by definition, invested in equity markets. This piece is an opinion column, not a research report.

The question isn't whether Fisher is right. It's whether the framework is useful. And for L-Plate Retirees trying to make sense of five consecutive losing weeks, the wall of worry concept is one of the more honest ways to think about what markets are actually doing right now.

Actionable takeaways for L-Plate Retirees:

• The wall of worry is not a reason to be reckless – it's a reason not to panic. Fisher's argument isn't "everything is fine." It's that widespread fear and scepticism are historically consistent with ongoing bull markets, not the end of them. If you've been considering selling to cash, this historical context is worth weighing.

• Markets price conflict faster than the conflict resolves. Fisher's three-step pattern – pre-conflict volatility, worst-case pricing, then relief – suggests the worst market reaction to the Iran war may already be behind us, even if the war itself continues. That's not a prediction; it's a historical pattern worth knowing.

• Tariff fatigue is real. Markets move on surprises. If tariffs have been a known variable for two years and markets have already adjusted, the incremental damage of further tariff noise is less than the first shock. That doesn't make tariffs good news – it just means the market impact is front-loaded.

• Bull market age is not a death sentence. At 41 months, this bull market is younger than the historical median of 60 months. If you've been telling yourself the market is "due" for a prolonged collapse simply because it's been running for a few years, the data doesn't support that view.

• Know your source – but engage with the argument. Fisher has obvious incentives as a professional bull. Dismissing a well-evidenced argument because of its source is as dangerous as accepting it uncritically. Read the historical claims, test them, then decide.

• Your retirement horizon matters more than this week's headlines. If your retirement is 10 or more years away, the Iran war, current oil prices and this week's VIX level are noise against the signal of compounding returns over time. If you are within five years of retirement, the concern is sequence risk – not whether Fisher is right about the wall of worry.

Your Turn:
Fisher says the "yeah, buts" are bullish fuel – that fear and scepticism are what keep a bull market going. Does that argument land for you right now, or does it feel too convenient given what markets have done this month?
The wall of worry concept suggests that when everyone is scared, the bad news is already priced in. Looking at your own behaviour over the past few weeks, have you been acting on that logic – or against it?
Fisher's closing line is that the time to worry is when the "yeah, buts" have finally gone quiet. Are you hearing more worry around you right now, or less?

👉 Hit reply and share your thoughts – your answers could inspire fellow readers in future issues.

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